Escassez mundial de ICs em 2021

[Dark Kaeser]

Sim, e os investimentos foram feitos já em 2019 ou 2018, onde essa necessidade já estava identificada. E este tipo de processos é ou era um nicho que é muito específico.

A haver investimento o processo mais provável de ser o "objeto do investimento" seria o 14 FDsoi da ST Micro.

 

[Nemesis11]

O Revenue (Linha Azul) a nível de Semicondutores, nos últimos 25 anos:

https://www.techpowerup.com/280656/...les-up-14-7-year-to-year-in-february-says-sia

O crescimento do revenue, de 2016 a 2019 foi bastante grande e depois de uma quebra abrupta, voltou a recuperar.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Europe should invest in chip design, not a mega-fab: think tank​

Europe’s ambition to make the most powerful computer chips risks wasting billions of euros, a German think tank said in a report on Thursday

“For an EU foundry there is simply no business case at the moment in Europe, mainly for the lack of customers,” said Kleinhans, an analyst at the Stiftung Neue Verantwortung (SNV) think tank in Berlin.

The European Commission last month launched a 10-year plan, the Digital Compass, setting its sights on a 20% global semiconductor market share and building a fabrication plant, or fab, that can make superfast 2 nanometer chips.

“In terms of volume it’s simply not enough to fill a fab,” he said. “That would mean an EU foundry would need to attract foreign customers - this is extremely unlikely.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-semiconductors-europe-idUSKBN2BV1K2

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Powerchip breaks ground for NT$278bn Miaoli fab​

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (力積電) yesterday held a groundbreaking ceremony for a NT$278 billion (US$9.72 billion) fab in Miaoli County, to raise capacity as it is struggling to keep up with demand for its chips.

Powerchip’s new fab in the Tongluo Science Park (銅鑼科學園區) would from 2023 make chips with 45-nanometer and 50-nanometer technologies, Huang said.

Management ICs, touch sensors, vehicle chips and driver ICs for flat panels would be made at the new fab, he said.

In its first phase, the fab would produce 25,000 12-inch wafers per month, before capacity would be raised to 100,000 wafers per month, Powerchip said.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2021/03/26/2003754498

 

[Nemesis11]

Estava a ler uma noticia de uma SBC que foi adiada, devido à empresa ter que trocar a LAN, porque a Realtek que pretendiam usar, está sem stock e os preços dispararam:

it should come as no surprise that Quartz64 Model A production has also been affected. Pine64 explains this is due to the lack of stock of the Gigabit Ethernet PHY (namely RTL8211F-CG based on the schematics), with a projected lead time of 12 months, and a price increase of 850%, yes, that’s eight hundred fifty percent.

https://www.cnx-software.com/2021/0...vealed-model-a-gets-hit-by-production-delays/

Se procurarmos por esta PHY, encontramos isto:

• 40-pin QFN Green package
• 55 nm process with ultra-low power consumption

https://www.realtek.com/en/products/communications-network-ics/item/rtl8211f-i-cg

Isto é um chip muito pequeno e feito num processo de fabrico antigo e mais que maduro. Isto é, a escassez de ICs não afecta só Chips enormes e feitos nos processos de fabrico mais avançados.

A notícia tem um link para outra notícia, onde tem o "Lead Time" e o aumento do "Lead Time" em Q1 2021, de várias empresas em vários tipos de componentes:

Supplier​	Current lead time​	Increase in Q1​
Memory
Micron	14-15 weeks	6-8 weeks
Alliance Memory	14-15 weeks	6-8 weeks
ADATA	14-15 weeks	6-8 weeks
Greenliant	10-24 weeks	2-12 weeks
Wang Hong Electronics	20-28 weeks	8-10 weeks
Transcend	14-15 weeks	6-8 weeks
MCU & Power Management ICs
NXP	26-52 weeks	8-12 weeks
Renesas	26-52 weeks	8-12 weeks
STMicroelectronics	26-52 weeks	8-12 weeks
Microchip	16-40 weeks	4-10 weeks
Qualcomm	26-52 weeks	8-12 weeks
Nuvoton	26-52 weeks	8-12 weeks
Analog ICs
Texas instruments	20-24 weeks	8-12 weeks
NXP / Freescale	20-24 weeks	8-12 weeks
Renesas	20-24 weeks	8-12 weeks
Toshiba	20-24 weeks	8-12 weeks
ON Semiconductor	16-52 weeks	4-10 weeks
Infineon	22-40 weeks	4-10 weeks
STMicroelectronics	16-30 weeks	2-4 weeks
MOSFET, Discrete devices
ON Semiconductor	22-50 weeks	8-12 weeks
Infineon	22-44 weeks	8-12 weeks
STMicroelectronics	22-40 weeks	4-12 weeks
Anshi semiconductor (Wingtech)	12-30 weeks	6-14 weeks
Rohm	20-40 weeks	8-20 weeks
DIODES	18-30 weeks	8-12 weeks
Littlefuse	16-30 weeks	4-8 weeks
CPU
Intel	12-16 weeks	8 weeks
Passive components
Vishay	24-52 weeks	8-12 weeks
Murata	20-26 weeks	6-10 weeks
Nichicon	16-24 weeks	6 weeks
Matsushita	16-30 weeks	4-12 weeks
Taiyo Yuden	18-20 weeks	2 weeks
TDK	22-44 weeks	6-12 weeks
Yageo	20-24 weeks	2-4 weeks
Wireless communication chips
Broadcom	24-52 weeks	8-12 weeks
MediaTek	20-30 weeks	8-10 weeks
Realtek	20-30 weeks	8-10 weeks
Microchip	24-26 weeks	6-8 weeks
Infineon/Cypress	26-30 weeks	16-18 weeks
u-blox	26-30 weeks	16-18 weeks
NXP	30-32 weeks	6 weeks

https://www.cnx-software.com/2021/03/28/semiconductors-lead-time-in-march-2021/

Estamos a falar de "Lead Times" de meses. Alguns até de 1 ano.

A few days ago, Hardkernel had o increase the price for ODROID boards using DDR4 memory with increases of $3 to $4 for ODROID-N2+, ODROID-C4, and ODROID-HC4 boards.

Eu estou à espera que quase tudo vá aumentar de preços nos próximos tempos.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Nada de novo, infelizmente...

Quer dizer há dias a Fab 14 da TSMC (40 e 55nm, mas acho que só afectou um dos edifícios o P7) teve um apagão, o que quer dizer que estará pelo menos uma semana parada para avaliação dos danos nas máquinas, avaliar se é possível recuperar wafers e depois voltar a ligar a maquinaria e calibrar tudo novamente.

TSMC suffers power outage at Tainan chip fab complex​

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/tsmc-suffers-power-outage-at-tainan-chip-fab-complex/


E agora uma notícia que faz empalidecer o anúncio quer da Intel quer do governo americano.

TSMC Boosts Capital Budget Again, to $30B​

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) has again raised its 2021 capital expenditure target to $30 billion after customer demand exceeded the company’s expectations three months ago.

The world’s biggest chip foundry, which is running full tilt with capacity utilization in the neighborhood of 100%, in January was aiming for capex this year to reach about $28 billion. The new $30 billion figure nearly doubles the $17.2 billion the company spent in 2020.

Wei added that TSMC expects to invest about $100 billion during the next three years to increase capacity and R&D for leading-edge and specialty technologies, at the same time helping to strengthen confidence in global supply chains.

Some analysts found the forecast a surprise.

“This is the first time for TSMC to announce a multi-year capex,” Goldman Sachs analyst Bruce Lu said during the call. “This suggests very, very strong growth even beyond 2023.”

https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-boosts-capital-budget-again-to-30b/


TSMC Ups CAPEX Again!

We were all pleasantly surprised when TSMC increased 2021 Capex to a record $28 billion. To me this validated the talk inside the ecosystem that Intel would be coming to TSMC at 3nm. We were again surprised when TSMC announced a $100B investment over the next three years which belittled Intel’s announcement that they would spend $20B on two new fabs in Arizona.

It wasn’t clear what the TSMC investment included but we now know (via the Q1 2021 Investor Call) that it’s predominantly CAPEX starting with $30B in 2021 and the rest over 2022 and 2023. Personally, I think TSMC CAPEX will end up being more than $100B because TSMC tends to be conservative with their numbers, absolutely.

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/tsmc/298172-tsmc-ups-capex-again/

 

[Torak]

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Automakers to Blame for Semiconductor Shortage

The shortage of automotive semiconductors is primarily the fault of the auto makers. When the global COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, automakers cut production. Some of the production cuts were to protect workers from exposure to COVID-19. Most of the production cuts were due to the uncertain demand for autos in the wake of major economic disruption caused by the pandemic.

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-services/298336-automakers-to-blame-for-semiconductor-shortage/

 

[Nemesis11]

Em relação à falta de componentes no mercado automóvel, tenho visto algumas noticias interessantes e até curiosas, de como as marcas estão a lidar com isso.

A noticia que achei mais curiosa é o que a Peugeot decidiu fazer, para dar a volta ao problema:

Stellantis scraps digital speedometers for Peugeot car in chips shortage​

Carmaker Stellantis (STLA.MI) said on Wednesday it would replace digital speedometers with more old-fashioned analogue ones in one of its Peugeot models, in a fallout from a global shortage of semiconductor chips that is roiling the auto industry.

The change will only affect Peugeot 308 cars, among group brands that include Chrysler, Citroen and Jeep since France's PSA Group merged with Italian-American company Fiat-Chrysler this year to form Stellantis.

"It's a nifty and agile way of getting around a real hurdle for car production, until the 'chips' crisis ends," a spokesman for Stellantis told Reuters.

Manufacturing of Peugeot 308 cars had already been disrupted at the group's French factory of Sochaux due to the shortage, echoing temporary halts and production cutbacks globally, from Ford Motor to Volkswagen, in recent months.

The COVID-19 pandemic drove up demand for semiconductor chips for use in electronics like computers, as people worked from home, and suppliers are struggling to adjust.

The traditional speedometers on Peugeot 308 cars should start appearing in vehicles by the end of May, the company said, while Stellantis is keeping chips for digital dashboards on its most popular models, like the Peugeot 3008 SUV.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...meters-peugeot-car-chips-shortage-2021-04-21/

Como não há componentes para os mostradores digitais do 308, a solução encontrada foi colocar um dashboard analógico, como no tempo dos dinossauros.

Outras marcas, estão a parar ou reduzir a produção. A oferta e as vendas, também caíram pela falta de componentes.

Jaguar Land Rover, Daimler production scaled back due to global chip shortage​

• Jaguar Land Rover announced that it has been forced to stop car production for a "limited period" at its Castle Bromwich and Halewood manufacturing plants in England.
• Mercedes-maker Daimler is cutting the hours of up to 18,500 workers and pausing production at two plants in Germany.
• Elsewhere in Europe, French car giant Renault said Thursday that its sales in the most recent quarter had been hit by the semiconductor shortage.

LONDON – The global chip shortage is continuing to wreak havoc at some of the world's biggest carmakers.

Britain's Jaguar Land Rover announced Thursday that it has been forced to stop car production for a "limited period" at its Castle Bromwich and Halewood manufacturing plants in England as a result of the chip shortage, which has been going on for several months now.

"Like other automotive manufacturers, we are currently experiencing some Covid-19 supply chain disruption, including the global availability of semi-conductors, which is having an impact on our production schedules and our ability to meet global demand for some of our vehicles," a spokesperson told CNBC.

They added: "We are working closely with affected suppliers to resolve the issues and minimize the impact on customer orders wherever possible."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/jag...duction-scaled-back-due-to-chip-shortage.html

Por ultimo, a Cisco diz que esta escassez deve continuar pelo menos por mais 6 meses e que o aumento de capacidade de produção, a ser feita por várias empresas, só se deve começar a notar daqui a 12 a 18 meses.

Cisco says computer chip shortage to last six months​

The boss of networking giant Cisco has said the shortage of computer chips is set to last for most of this year.

Many firms have seen production delayed because of a lack of semiconductors, triggered by the Covid pandemic and exacerbated by other factors.

Cisco chief Chuck Robbins told the BBC: "We think we've got another six months to get through the short term.

"The providers are building out more capacity. And that'll get better and better over the next 12 to 18 months."

That expansion of capacity will be crucial as advances in technology - including 5G, cloud computing, the internet of things and artificial intelligence - drive a big increase in demand.

Mr Robbins is the latest tech boss to weigh in on the debate - and with 85% of internet traffic using Cisco's systems, his opinion matters.

"Right now, it is a big problem," he says, "because semiconductors go in virtually everything."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56847518

 

[AntenaMan]

Automakers to Blame for Semiconductor Shortage

Até a Autoeuropa já reduziu a produção devido à escassez de componentes electrónicos.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

UMC Investing $3.6 billion on 28 nm Manufacturing Capabilities Amidst Worldwide Semiconductor Shortages​

UMC has entered agreements with some of its clients, who will be paying upfront for expected chip rollout in the future. In exchange, clients will get the benefits of preset pricing (thus avoiding any potential increases arising from increased demand or general price fluctuation), as well as UMC's assurance of certain manufacturing volume allocation towards their needs. Fab 12A currently manufactures 90,000 300 mm wafers per month (wpm). An additional 10,000 wpm is being installed this year and phase six will add another 27,500 wpm to the mix. The mature 28 nm tools will be installed in floors that already feature support for future tooling upgrades to 14 nm.

https://www.techpowerup.com/281644/...ties-amidst-worldwide-semiconductor-shortages

 

[Torak]

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Intel’s Chief Revenue Officer: We have Silicon, but Shortages in Wi-Fi, Substrates, Panels

One of the key commentaries about the current semiconductor shortages is around where exactly the bottlenecks are. The traditional interpretation of a semiconductor shortage implies that not enough silicon can be made, but over the last few months a number of companies have pointed to post-silicon production, such as testing and packaging, causing some of the issues. To the best of our knowledge, none of the companies affected by the shortages are specifically pointing at partner companies or specific supply chain areas where there is a bottleneck, however there have been a number of comments focused in the direction of packaging, substrates, and the specialist films involved for high performance compute.

Holthaus states that due to Intel’s investment over the last three years to increase silicon output on its leading edge process technologies, it has doubled its silicon production, and continuing to invest in that area of the business. However the industry has increased in PC units by 33%-50% over the past two years, and other ancillary ecosystem components are now in short supply, including substrates as previously mentioned, but Holthaus also notes that Wi-Fi modules and display panels are also part of that ecosystem limitation. The company has plenty of silicon waiting to be packaged apparently, but partners looking for a complete set of components for complex machine integration are having additional difficulty.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/1665...licon-but-shortages-in-wifi-substrates-panels


A próxima é um resumo da semana, aborda várias áreas, especificamente:

Packaging and test

ASE posted sales of NT$119.47 billion for the first quarter, up 23% year-over-year. For the year, ASE expects to increase its wire bond capacity by about 10% to 15%. ASE ended 2020 with slightly more than 26,000 wire bonders. In total, ASE expects its 2021 equipment capital expenditures to increase 10% to 15% as compared to last year. It will invest 65% of its CapEx on packaging equipment and 20% on testing equipment.

Amkor reported record first quarter net sales $1.33 billion, up 15% year-on-year. “Continued strength in advanced packaging and year-on-year growth of 13% in our mainstream business led to better than seasonal results in communications and to sequential growth in automotive and industrial, consumer, and computing end markets,” said Giel Rutten, Amkor’s president and chief executive.

JCET announced the official opening of its Automotive Electronics Business Center and Design Services Business Center. JCET also reported fourth-quarter revenue of RMB 7.70 billion, up 17.6% year-on-year. Full-year revenue was RMB 26.46 billion, up 28.2% year-on-year.

https://semiengineering.com/week-in-review-manufacturing-test-146/

e isto já vem no seguimento de crescimento de Quarters anteriores.

http://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=1892

 

[Rafx]

A fábrica da Bosch em Braga vai parar parte da produçãoe o pessoal vai estar em lay-off alternado por causa da escassez de componentes electrónicos.

 

[Walderstorn]

É lamentável mas só se espera que n percam o emprego.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Q1 2021 Foundry Update: Spending Bonanza

All three of the major leading-edge process manufacturers – Intel, TSMC, and Samsung – announced plans doubling down on future nodes and manufacturing capabilities. SMIC trailing behind.

https://fuse.wikichip.org/news/5002/q1-2021-foundry-update-spending-bonanza/

 

[Nemesis11]

Samsung​

This quarter Samsung announced it will doubling down on its foundry business. The company plans to invest 171 trillion won ($150.8 billion) in its development of cutting-edge process technology and the construction of new fabs (note the investment is exclusively non-memory related). The announcement is an increase of $50.8 billion from their prior “Vision 2030” announcement which was announced just a few months earlier.

Acho sempre interessante colocar em perspectiva, a enorme quantidade de dinheiro que é preciso investir neste sector.
Este "Vision 2030" é um plano a 10 anos, de investimento da Samsung, só nesta área de produção de semicondutores.
Temos aqui uma previsão de investimento de 150,8 mil milhões de $ em 10 anos. O programa Apollo, a preços de 2019, custou 156 mil milhões de $ durante 11 anos.
Uma grande diferença é que não é um Estado a pagar, nem envolve múltiplas empresas. É "apenas" o investimento de uma empresa, numa área muito especifica.

Este gráfico da SMIC também é interessante:

Mesmo em Revenue, os nós com mais vendas da SMIC, saõ 150/180 nm e 55/65 nm, que são processos de fabrico muito maduros.

 

[blueray]

Nos próximos tempos, vamos ver a tecnologia a subir de preço.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

A bem dizer o investimento da Samsung é enquadrado numa iniciativa governamental

Governments are deploying ‘wartime-like’ efforts to win the global semiconductor race​

Key Points

• South Korea became the latest country to announce a colossal investment in the industry last week.
• The nation’s government said Thursday that 510 trillion South Korean won ($452 billion) will be invested in chips by 2030.
• The bulk of that will come from private companies in the country.

Through the so-called “K-Semiconductor Strategy,” the South Korean government said it will support the industry by offering tax breaks, finance, and infrastructure.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/sem...oy-wartime-like-efforts-to-win-chip-race.html

De salientar que o investimento da Samsung é em Logic, não é relacionado com Memória (Nand ou Dram).

Até a SK Hynix vai investir em Logic, que representa apenas 2% do seu volume de negócio, duplicando a sua capacidade.

SK Hynix Willing to Make Investment in System Semiconductors

"We are considering doubling our 8-inch foundry capacity by expanding our domestic plant or making M&A deals," SK Hynix vice chairman Park Jung-ho

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=67153

Em relação à SMIC

Elsewhere, Chinese chipmaker SMIC said Friday it is working rapidly to expand capacity with some plans moving ahead of schedule. Haijun Zhao, the CEO, said on an earnings call that semiconductor demand in every customer segment continues to exceed supply.

SMIC posted a 22% jump in first quarter sales to $1.1 billion and raised its sales outlook for the first half of the year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/sem...oy-wartime-like-efforts-to-win-chip-race.html

 

[nullus]

Eu parece-me que daqui a uns anos vamos ter é inverso. Com a quantidade de investimento que se está a fazer em novos fabs vamos ter semicondutores a preço de saldo.