Escassez mundial de ICs em 2021

[reise]

Ainda funciona, não tinha fechado?

Nunca fechou realmente. No tempo da Qimonda entrou em processo de insolvência e mandou embora a maior parte dos funcionários (eu incluido!), depois os credores criaram a Nanium que mudou a estratégia de produção de semicondutores para serviços em semicondutores, e à coisa de 3 anos fomos adquiridos pela AMKOR Technology, e agora somo AMKOR Technology Portugal!
Eu voltei há cerca 4 anos à mesma equipa mas agora somos muito mais pequenos.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

SMIC Revenue Soars as Chinese Market Sours​

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) saw sales grow by more than 66% during the first three months of this year as the company warned of weakening demand in China, its home market.

While the Chinese government locked down cities such as Shanghai, SMIC’s headquarters, as part of a zero–Covid strategy, the company was still able to keep its fabs running at 100% utilization.

China’s largest chipmaker shifted production to meet strong demand for semiconductors used in electric vehicles and advanced displays while consumer electronics tanked.

Smartphones and other consumer electronics previously accounted for as much as 50% of revenue for chip foundries like SMIC. During the first quarter of this year, that figure fell to less than 30% for the company.

“Smartphones, consumer products, PCs, and internet…they’ve dropped like a rock,” SMIC co–CEO Haijun Zhao told analysts on a conference call last week. “Some customers hold five months of inventory in the supply chain. Oversupply is very serious.”

The company has switched production to address shortages of power management ICs and AMOLED drivers as well as MCUs and parts for WiFi 6, where demand remains strong.

SMIC Q1 2022 sales YoY. (Source: SMIC)

https://www.eetimes.com/smic-revenue-soars-as-chinese-market-sours/

 

[Dark Kaeser]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527930603395743744

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527933276559908866

 

[The WolfMan]

Os 200mm é o diâmetro do wafer? Quais as vantagens e às desvantagens de um wafer maior? Se os Yields forem iguais, a capacidade aumenta não?

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Sim... mas para muito IC que ainda é produzido em processos mais antigos, esse era o diâmetro mais usado.

Mas o problema é que a maioria desse equipamento já não é produzido...

 

[reise]

Os 200mm é o diâmetro do wafer? Quais as vantagens e às desvantagens de um wafer maior? Se os Yields forem iguais, a capacidade aumenta não?

Sim é o diâmetro.
Pode interessar porque uma de 300mm leva quase o dobro dos chips de uma 200mm, porque os chips têm aumentado de tamanho e cada wafer produz menos quantidade, porque pode haver processos que levam o mesmo tempo independente do tamanho.
Agora até há testes com wafers rectangulares.

 

[The WolfMan]

Sim... mas para muito IC que ainda é produzido em processos mais antigos, esse era o diâmetro mais usado.

Mas o problema é que a maioria desse equipamento já não é produzido...

Por experiência própria sei que há muito equipamento industrial (para máquinas de linhas de produção) que usado é um mina de ouro! Estando descontinuados e sem substituto directo então…

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Não é que não tenham substituto directo, mas dado que os fabricantes e fornecedores dessas máquinas para 200mm deixaram de as produzir, havia o stock produzido e o que foi liquidado das empresas que foram à falência ou venderam quando fizeram o upgrade para os 300mm, esgotado esse as foundries mais antigas se querem aumentar a capacidade terão de ir para as máquinas mais recentes que usam wafers de 300mm, que é o que há, até podem comprar as chinesas, que já as há.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants

As últimas Fab da Bosch, Infineon e Texas Instruments, são todas a 300mm, e o node mais recente será provavelmente a 65nm, mas para a maioria do que produzem chega e sobra recorrendo à TSMC, GF, UMC e etc para coisas mais específicas porque aí o investimento que teriam de fazer já não lhes compensa.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

TSMC to Expand Capacity for Mature and Specialty Nodes by 50%

TSMC this afternoon has disclosed that it will expand its production capacity for mature and specialized nodes by about 50% by 2025. The plan includes building numerous new fabs in Taiwan, Japan, and China. The move will further intensify competition between TSMC and such contract makers of chips as GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC.

The company is investing in four new facilities for mature and specialty nodes:

• Fab 23 Phase 1 in Kumamoto, Japan. This semiconductor fabrication facility will make chips using TSMC's N12, N16, N22, and N28 nodes and will have a production capacity of up to 45,000 300-mm wafer starts per month.
• Fab 14 Phase 8 in Tainan, Taiwan.
• Fab 22 Phase 2 in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
• Fab 16 Phase 1B in Nanjing, China. TSMC currently makes chips on its N28 in China, though the new phase was once rumored to be capable of making chips using more advanced nodes.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/17456/tsmc-to-expand-capacity-for-mature-and-specialty-nodes-by-50


Durante a apresentação publicaram alguns exemplos

A vermelho os sensores são produzidos em processos desde os 0.35 µm (350 nm ) até aos 28nm, e o violeta PMIC de 0.25µm (250nm) até aos 40nm

 

[Dark Kaeser]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538794220986712065

Já agora para o Q2

Semiconductors Weakening in 2022

The semiconductor market in 2022 is weakening. Driving factors include rising inflation, the Russian war on Ukraine, COVID-19 related shutdowns in China, and lingering supply chain issues.

Four of the top 14 semiconductor companies (Intel, Qualcomm, Nvidia and Texas Instruments) are expecting lower revenues in 2Q 2022 versus 1Q 2022. All four cited COVID-19 related lockdowns in China as a factor.

Six non-memory companies expect revenue growth in 2Q 2022 from 1Q 2022 ranging from 3% to 7%. Three of these companies (Infineon Technologies, STMicroelectronics and NXP Semiconductors) have significant automotive business contributing to their growth.

Memory companies have a brighter outlook than non-memory companies. Micron’s guidance for its fiscal quarter which ended in early June was an increase of 11.7% from the prior quarter. Samsung, SK Hynix and Kioxia all reported demand for both DRAM and flash memory remains solid.

The outlook for key semiconductor market drivers is also abating. Earlier this month IDC projected declines in 2022 shipments of both smartphones and PCs. Smartphones are forecast to decline 3.5% in 2022 after 6% growth in 2023. IDC expects smartphones to recover to 5% growth in 2023. PCs boomed in 2020 and 2021 with double-digit growth driven by work-at-home and learn-at-home trends due to the COVID-19 pandemic. IDC forecasts a decline of 8.2% for PCs in 2022. PCs should grow 1% in 2023, in line with pre-COVID trends.

The automotive industry is the only bright spot among major drivers. In May 2022, S&P Global Mobility (which merged with IHS Markit) expects light vehicle production to grow 4.1% in 2022 after 3.5% growth in 2021. Pent-up demand for vehicles would drive even higher growth, but production is limited by shutdowns in China, supply chain issues, and the war in Ukraine. Vehicle production is forecast to grow a healthy 9.4% in 2023.

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-...ence/314356-semiconductors-weakening-in-2022/

 

[Dark Kaeser]

SkyWater to Build $1.8 Billion Fab in Indiana​

SkyWater Technology, a U.S. foundry that’s a trusted chip supplier for the Department of Defense (DOD), plans to build a $1.8 billion chip R&D and production facility in the state of Indiana.

The fab, which would be located on the campus of Purdue University in the town of West Lafayette, is planned as a public–private partnership that will count on some of the $52 billion in funding from the proposed CHIPS Act.

“SkyWater’s investment in a new state–of–the–art semiconductor manufacturing facility at Purdue’s Discovery Park District represents a major step forward and highlights the importance of public–private partnerships in fostering a robust and thriving domestic microelectronics industry,” said Devanand Shenoy, principal director of microelectronics of the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering for the DOD.

SkyWater makes chips using 90nm process technology at two fabs in the U.S. The company was formed in 2017, when private equity firm Oxbow Industries acquired Cypress Foundry Solutions, a subsidiary of California–based Cypress Semiconductor.

Early last year, SkyWater acquired a second chip fab in Osceola, Florida, by repurposing a University of Central Florida research facility.

https://www.eetimes.com/skywater-to-build-1-8-billion-fab-in-indiana/


e agora....

China’s SMIC Is Shipping 7nm Foundry ASICs​

The foundry has now quietly released and started mass production of their 7nm process node dubbed N+2.

We say quietly as this didn’t come directly from SMIC, but rather the reverse engineering and teardown firm TechInsights who purchased the chip on the open market and sent it to their labs. SMIC likely has not discussed this publicly on earnings reports as they are afraid of blowback.

Initial images suggest it is a close copy of TSMC 7nm process technology.
TechInsights Product Brief

SMIC’s 7nm just like TSMC’s 7nm and Intel’s 7nm class technologies does not use EUV lithography. TechInsights has more information in their 3 detailed reports titled “ASIC Digital Floorplan Analysis,” “(SMIC 7nm) Advanced CMOS Process Analysis,” and “(SMIC 7nm) Process Flow Analysis.” We recommend people check those out for more details.

SMIC’s foundry customer, MinerVa states this chip has been in production since July of 2021.

https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/chinas-smic-is-shipping-7nm-foundry

 

[Dark Kaeser]

STMicroelectronics Doubles Q2 Net Income, Raises 2022 Guidance​

TMicroelectronics has reported net revenues of $3.84 billion in the second quarter of 2022, up 28.3% year over year and above the midpoint of its guidance, and raised its full-year revenue outlook.

In the second quarter, the revenue growth was accompanied by improved profitability: The operating margin reached 26.2%, up from 16.3%, and the net income more than doubled year over year, from $412 million to $867 million.

All three product groups achieved double-digit revenue growth in the second quarter of 2022 on a year-over-year basis:

• Automotive and Power Discrete Group (ADG): +35.1%, on growth in both automotive and in power discretes
• Analog, MEMS, and Sensors (AMS): +11.3%, on higher analog, MEMS, and imaging product sales
• Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group (MDG): +39.5%, on growth in both microcontrollers and in RF communications

“Our backlog exiting Q2 covered six to eight quarters of planned capacity, depending on the product type,” said Chéry. “Book-to-bill is well above parity. Our manufacturing capacity is fully saturated.”

During the Q&A session, he specified, “We have 2022 sold out and we basically have 2023, which is either sold out or practically sold out, depending on the product group. In automotive, the full capacity of 2023 is sold out. So when asked when we believe we’ll come back to normal lead times, capability to replenish inventories, I always say, of course, not before the end of 2023 and then in 2024.”

https://www.eetimes.eu/stmicroelect...96.1544236568.1659749635-954698787.1646789990

Chip makers have a message for car makers: Your turn to pay​

It is a U-turn for automakers who had previously relied on suppliers – or their suppliers – to source semiconductors.

For chip makers, the still-developing partnership with automakers is a welcome - and overdue reset. Many semiconductor executives point the finger at automakers’ lack of understanding of how the chip supply chain works – and an unwillingness to share cost and risk - for a large part of the recent crisis.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-message-car-makers-your-turn-pay-2022-08-03/

 

[Ansatsu]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564214134547263488

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Automotive Semiconductor Shortage Over?

The key reasons for the shortages of automotive semiconductors are:

• Automotive manufacturers cut back on semiconductor orders severely at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The auto companies were fearful of being stuck with excess inventories of cars if demand fell significantly due to the pandemic. When the automakers tried to increase orders, they had lost their place in line and were behind other industries such as PCs and smartphones.
• Many automakers used a just-in-time ordering system to avoid excess inventories. This left them with almost no buffer inventories. Also, most semiconductors used in automotive are bought by the companies supplying the systems (engine controls, dashboard electronics, etc.) rather than the automakers, leading to a more complex supply chain.
• Semiconductors used in automobiles have a long design-in cycle and must be qualification standards. Thus, it is difficult for an automaker to change suppliers in the short term.
• Due to the long design cycles and long product life, semiconductors used in automotive applications use older process nodes than most other applications. As shown in the table below, McKinsey estimated 72% of the semiconductor wafers for automotive in 2021 used process nodes of 90 nanometer or greater compared to 52% of all applications. Only 6% of automotive demand is for 14 nanometer and less process nodes, compared to 21% for all applications. Semiconductor manufacturers concentrate their capital spending on the more advanced process nodes, with only modest expansion of capacity in older nodes. TSMC, the dominant wafer foundry, makes 65% of its revenue from advanced process nodes and only 12% of its revenue from nodes of 90 nanometers or greater. Only 5% TSMC’s revenue is from automotive, compared to 38% from smartphones. Thus, automakers are generally a lower priority for foundries.

Given all the above factors, it will take time for all the supply issues to be resolved. Recent comments from major automakers reveal mixed trends in resolving the semiconductor shortages.

• Toyota – shortages at least through 3Q 2022
• Volkswagen – shortages easing
• Hyundai – shortages easing
• General Motors – shortage impact into 2023
• Stellantis – shortages through the second half of 2022
• Honda – outlook uncertain due to shortages
• Nissan – recovery in next few months
• Ford – shortages still an issue
• Mercedes-Benz – no significant supply issues
• BMW – no production delays due to shortages
• Volvo – back at full supply
• Bosch (parts supplier) – shortages into 2023

The table below list the major suppliers of semiconductors to the automotive market. The top ten suppliers accounted for 46% of the total automotive semiconductor market of $69 billion in 2021 (according to WSTS). Automotive is a significant portion of total semiconductor revenues for each of these companies, ranging from 17% to 50%.

The five largest suppliers of automotive semiconductors also had varied outlooks on the shortages in their recent financial reports for 2Q 2022:

• Infineon Technologies – gradual easing of shortages throughout 2022
• NXP Semiconductors – demand will still exceed supply in 3Q 2022
• Renesas Electronics – inventory back to planned levels at end of 2Q 2022.
• Texas Instruments – inventories still below desired levels
• STMicroelectronics – capacity sold out through 2023

https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-...17289-automotive-semiconductor-shortage-over/

 

[Scan_Ferr]

Não sei se é o sítio certo mas:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-china-semiconductors-industry-b2202941.html

 

[Walderstorn]

Não sei se é o sítio certo mas:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-china-semiconductors-industry-b2202941.html

Eu compreendo os EUA, embora não seja do nosso interesse mas claro que é normal, depois dos últimos 5 anos, que a tendência seja para tentarem serem mais autónomos e diminuírem a dependência de 3ºs. Dito isto, claro que a China, vai sentir-se (e muito atingida). Honestamente espero que a EU comece a acordar em alguns aspectos (não de forma tão extremista) para certas situações e dependências.

 

[Miguel_Pereira]

Eu compreendo os EUA, embora não seja do nosso interesse mas claro que é normal, depois dos últimos 5 anos, que a tendência seja para tentarem serem mais autónomos e diminuírem a dependência de 3ºs. Dito isto, claro que a China, vai sentir-se (e muito atingida). Honestamente espero que a EU comece a acordar em alguns aspectos (não de forma tão extremista) para certas situações e dependências.

https://24.sapo.pt/atualidade/artig...nciara-ao-uso-da-forca-para-reunificar-taiwan

Estas coisas estão todas conectadas. Nós na EU assistimos ao longe. Não me parece que num futuro minimamente próximo sejamos autonomos em nada tecnológico.

 

[Dark Kaeser]

Ups...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584007974364012546

 

[Dark Kaeser]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584712309871898624

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584167513054535682

Samsung Elec to expand foundry business to tackle TSMC​

Samsung’s unit for contract chipmaking, or foundry, plans to increase its mature nodes and specialty nodes by more than 10 units by 2024, according to industry sources on Sunday. The South Korean tech giant’s production capacity of the mature and specialty nodes will rise by 2.3 times by 2027 from the level of 2018.

The mature node is for older chip production technologies such as 10 nanometers (nm), 14 nm, 28 nm, 65 nm and 180 nm processes to be used in vehicles, consumer electronics components and other products that do not require state-of-the-art processes. The specialty node is the customized legacy node to meet customers’ requests. The mature and specialty nodes account for more than half of the global foundry business.

https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202210240011

 

[Dark Kaeser]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585207742104735744