Se isto for mesmo assim para mim é uma surpresa.
No meu ponto de vista esta estratégia não faz muito sentido para a TSMC pelas razões que enumerei em posts anteriores. Para isto ser minimamente real a Intel deve ter despejado rios de dinheiro na TSMC!
The combined revenue of the top 10 foundries is projected to see a 20% year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2021, according to data from TrendForce. Fabrication capacities of these companies are either fully loaded or almost fully loaded, and it is reported that a typical lead time for an ordered batch of hardware is above 14 weeks (3.5 months) now. This is longer than the cycle time of even advanced nodes.
"We believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% below current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels," said Harlan Sur, an analyst with J.P. Morgan, in a note to clients, reports MarketWatch.
Now similar reports are being repeated in more reputable sources, notably today I saw a report in EE News Europe that stated:
- The site would be a Gigafab (correct terminology).
- Filings with the city of Phoenix describe three phases of building.
- TSMC has reportedly offered to double employee salaries to move to the US.
What I would think would be more likely is three fabs of just over 30,000 wpm each for a total of 100,000 wpm. Maybe they will build three fabs initially for 100,000 wpm and then have the option to build three more fabs later for an additional 100,000 wpm. Fab 18 in Taiwan has three fabs P1, P2 and P3 that are running 5nm with an original capacity of just under 30,000 wpm each although they are now being expanded to 40,000 wpm each, 120,000 wpm total. There is also P4, P5, and P6 under construction for 3nm that will likely each be around 30,000 wpm each initially bringing the site to around 200,000 wpm.
The $35 billion dollar price tag is high for 100,000 wpm of 5nm but would make sense if it also included some preparation for additional phases or 3nm capability. I should also point out the initial budget number for fabs is often an estimate and can increase or decrease as the fab is built depending on final capacity and how many fab phases are included in the initial amount. I believe TSMC has spent more money on phase 1, 2 and 3 of Fab 18 for 5nm than they originally announced and will also be spending more money on phases 4, 5 and 6 for 3nm than originally announced.
https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/296936-tsmc-plans-six-wafer-fabs-in-arizona/My best guess as of todays is the fab will have three phases initially producing 100,000 wpm total with the option to add three more phases in the futures to reach 200,000 wpm, that would be more consistent with TSMC Fab 18 in Taiwan.